Very good article, Tim. I’m wrong about markets all the time, but while the SpaceX, ChatGPT and Anthropic IPOs may well mark the symbolic top of this market, I feel that it may well have a little further to run, not least because you rightly point out how hated this rally is. Hence, I think that there are quite a few bears left to capitulate and quite a few sectors still to rally (e.g. crypto) before this one is done.
Brilliant essay- you had me at ‘Last Minute.com’, the stock market acts like we will be forever enjoying the lazy summer days of 1914 but winter is coming.
while my career was spent in FX, I clearly remember the 2000 bubble as all my clients, who were corporate Treasuries looking to manage their FX risk, only cared about the hot stock of the day that we were hearing about on the trading floor. it was a true mania. Not sure if we are quite there yet
I note though that my Trend Following Fund, one of the first out there, has only returned about 110% gains since Jan 2019. Not exactly great. Historically it had return an average of 15-18% per year over the long run so I guess I should not complain.
Very good article, Tim. I’m wrong about markets all the time, but while the SpaceX, ChatGPT and Anthropic IPOs may well mark the symbolic top of this market, I feel that it may well have a little further to run, not least because you rightly point out how hated this rally is. Hence, I think that there are quite a few bears left to capitulate and quite a few sectors still to rally (e.g. crypto) before this one is done.
Aah 2000 do you remember Gartmore launching a fund called Tech Tornado?😎it did what tornadoes do - wrecked everything…
Oh, the world needs a lot more Aurigas
Brilliant essay- you had me at ‘Last Minute.com’, the stock market acts like we will be forever enjoying the lazy summer days of 1914 but winter is coming.
while my career was spent in FX, I clearly remember the 2000 bubble as all my clients, who were corporate Treasuries looking to manage their FX risk, only cared about the hot stock of the day that we were hearing about on the trading floor. it was a true mania. Not sure if we are quite there yet
‘Investing through the looking glass’ recommended for creditor vs debtor nations education.
A disciplined bond index approach built over time could mitigate 1973 to mid eighties experience.
Excellent article.
Thank you.
Good article.
I note though that my Trend Following Fund, one of the first out there, has only returned about 110% gains since Jan 2019. Not exactly great. Historically it had return an average of 15-18% per year over the long run so I guess I should not complain.
Prescient words?